PETRI Methodology
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PETRI Methodology

How the Perceived Election Treason-Risk Index Works

PETRI applies a structured, transparent, and evidence-based methodology to assess risks within electoral processes that may undermine the people’s authority to elect their government. 

PETRI evaluates systems and procedures, not individuals or political actors, and does not determine legal guilt or wrongdoing. 

Methodology Principles

PETRI is designed to ensure consistency, neutrality, and transparency. The methodology: 

  • Focuses on electoral systems and procedures, not individuals 
  • Measures documented irregularities, not intent or guilt 
  • Uses only publicly verifiable secondary sources 
  • Applies consistent scoring across countries 
  • Avoids political or partisan judgement 

Elections Covered

PETRI assessments include only elections meeting all criteria: 

  • Countries must be independent and sovereign in the election year 
  • Multiparty electoral systems must be constitutionally established 
  • Only executive elections are assessed: 
  • Presidential elections in presidential systems 
  • Parliamentary elections in parliamentary systems 
  • Both types in mixed systems 
  • Only elections held in the preceding year are assessed 

Seven Aspects of Electoral Assessment

PETRI evaluates elections across seven aspects of the electoral process: 

  1. Legal & Institutional Integrity – Electoral laws, institutions, and dispute resolution systems 
  2. Voter Registration – Accuracy and fairness of voter registration systems 
  3. Party & Candidate Registration – Fairness and consistency in party and candidate participation 
  4. Voting Procedures – Access to voting and compliance with voting procedures 
  5. Counting & Tabulation – Integrity and accuracy of vote counting processes 
  6. Transmission & Certification – Integrity of result transmission and certification procedures 
  7. Post-Election Response – Handling of complaints, investigations, and transition processes 

Each aspect contains measurable indicators allowing systematic comparison.

Indicator Scoring System

Each indicator is scored 0–4 based on evidence:

ScoreMeaningTreason Risk Level
0No evidence of systematic or coordinated manipulation (indicator not triggered); absence of evidence does not imply impossibilityVery Low
1Limited or minor manipulation detectedLow
2Emerging or moderate manipulation detectedModerate
3Widespread or significant manipulation detectedHigh
4Severe, pervasive manipulation detected; triggers qualitative reviewVery High

Every score must be supported by at least two credible, independent sources. 

Evidence Sources Used

PETRI relies only on publicly available, verifiable information: 

  • Independent election commission reports and official statistics 
  • Independent court decisions and legal rulings 
  • Domestic and international election observer reports 
  • Peer-reviewed academic research 
  • Credible civil society and NGO reports 
  • Recognised governance and electoral datasets (e.g., IFES, V-Dem) 
  • Triangulated factual media reporting 

Not allowed: interviews, anonymous allegations, or unverifiable claims. 

Data Collection & Verification

  1. Collect publicly available evidence 
  2. Map evidence to PETRI indicators 
  3. Assign scores based on documented findings 
  4. Verify evidence across multiple sources 
  5. Conduct quality assurance and review 

High-risk or ambiguous cases undergo dual coding and senior reviewer validation.

Score Aggregation & Thresholds

  • Four indicators per aspect, seven aspects per election 
  • Aspect raw score = sum of four indicators (0–16) 
  • Aspect scaled score = raw ÷ 4 (0–4) 
  • Total PETRI score = sum of all seven scaled aspect scores (0–28) 

Risk Bands

Scaled Score Risk Level Meaning
0–5 Very Low Minimal or no evidence of systematic or coordinated manipulation
6–10 Low Limited or isolated manipulation detected
11–17 Moderate Emerging or systematic manipulation in multiple aspects
18–23 High Widespread systematic manipulation affecting the electoral process
24–28 Very High Severe, pervasive, and potentially decisive manipulation

Critical Indicator Rule: Any indicator scored 4 triggers a qualitative review. 

Transparency & Neutrality

  • PETRI is analytical and educational 
  • Does not accuse individuals or governments 
  • Does not determine criminal liability 
  • Evaluates systemic risk conditions only 
  • All results are evidence-based and publicly traceable 

Methodology Documents:

  • PETRI Methodology & Framework 
  • Data Collection Protocol 
  • QA & Audit Procedures 
  • Score Interpretation Guide 

Next: PETRI Indicators

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